How far can BTC rise and why should it?

Peter S Onge has an interesting article here.

Without trying to quantify any future Bitcoin value, the underlying question is, under what circumstances Bitcoin would rise to extreme heights, a very interesting question indeed.

The author states that a collapse of the US Dollar would inevitably lead to such event and the question follows how this may happen. 

In the article, excessive printing is one way to get it done, but the second point is the most obvious and most convincing: 

“The dollar’s price could collapse … simply because nobody wants to use it anymore.”

Why would this happen, that nobody wants to use the US Dollar anymore? 

Well, here are the reasons:

  • Increasingly global transactions are not conducted in USD anymore. This scenario is already on its way (China, Russia, Iran)
  • Excessive printing leads to inflation, as we can see and expect to get worse. More gov restrictions ahead like restriction of cash payments
  • Costs of money supply
  • Transaction difficulties and costs.

Introducing a FED-CBDC would solve the last point, none of the others, and opens the pandora box of even more manipulation. 

Simply said, USD is the old-fashioned taxi business and BTC is UBER, autonomously driving and without sexual harassment.

So when people decide, step by step, that BTC is better to use for transactions, they will switch. This means that fewer people want to use paper money anymore and even demand a premium for such payments. Think of credit card fees. 

Already today, many employees want to be paid in crypto, not in whatever fiat. 

Already today, corporations keep crypto as an asset on their balance sheet. See www.microstrategy.com

San Salvador has made BTC legal tender and each business has to accept it. More countries are considering such a step, some as it means progress, others to solve their inflation problem. 

But, you say, crypto is used for criminal transactions. Maybe, but in all the narco movies I have seen, the suitcases had been stuffed with dollar bills. So what? 

But, you say, if BTC is such a great store of value, why would people spend instead of holding it? Well, they don’t have to. They can easily keep and use it as collateral for loans in stablecoins or even CBDC for transactions. 

But, you say, If an EMP or CME is hitting earth and crashing the power supply, all is lost. Well, it is not, because as a decentralized system, there will always be network nodes alive somewhere and keeping it together. 

If all the electricity in the world breaks down, as worst-case, then it’s all about survival, not money anymore. 

So let us watch the USD going down and enjoy the increase in value of bitcoin.   

Moving along

While Cryptocoin enthusiasts are having a difficult time for a while already, the technology behind is moving along unstoppable, not just nicely.

For some eye-opening insight and outlook, George Gilders latest book Life after Google is a great read. It appears to confirm the fact that even the biggest tech firms will be overrun sooner or later. Overrun by people thinking out of the box again, developing new technologies and making it a business from the beginning, finding adequate means to fund it, not the old-fashioned VC way.

lifeaftergoogle
Source: amazon.com

There goes the centralized web and the centralized funding, once grown up together. Everything has its time.

Ironically this new tech movement is taking up pace right at the time when the old gatekeepers begin to abuse their power openly and evily. Nice coincidence.

What an environment has been created over time to oust a genius like Brendan Eich as Mozilla CEO for giving $1,000 for a case they find wrong? And this is just one example.

For a guy like me, grown up in East Germany, such Social Warrior movement is like going back in a time machine, but worse.

However, nobody and nothing is useless, can still serve as a bad example.

 

leninstalin
Source: ebay.com

 

 

“Time to separate money and state”

While writing this post, Bitcoin is approaching the $12,000 mark, again.

Willy Woo has published an analysis showing that the number of bitcoin users doubles every 12 months. Sounds familiar? Because this is the characteristic of exponential growth.

bitcoin-google-trends-growth-1300x624

When exponential growth is based on a massive transformative purpose, then disruption is unavoidably going to happen. And here’s this purpose as wisely stated  by  on November 28, 2017:

Why does Bitcoin keep growing? Because it’s time to separate money and state.

Naturally, somebody who has been working decades in the same industry doesn’t like disruption. It devalues their knowldege and experience, undermines the standing they are used to. So it is no surprise that Nobel laureates Stiglitz and Shiller are not fans of bitcoin & co.

 

Here is an articulate scenario:
infographic-10k-view-of-cryptocurrency
Digitization-based disruption is already happening everywhere. For society, government and finance industry it’s just beginning.

 

Blogging about blocking

We live in exciting times.

As the Internet from the beginning has made millionaires and billionaires, and still is, same thing is happening in a new domain right now: bitcoin.

bitcoin_com
Source: http://www.bitcoin.com

Coming from roughly $800 in January 2017, the famous cryptocurrency posterchild’s share price did exceed $5,800 on October 15.

 

coindesk-bpi-chart

 

And while there are very contrary opinions about the future share price development, there is no doubt about the underlying blockchain technology.

Start-ups, IT heavyweights, banks and other financial institutions, logistics companies, consulting firms, governments and regulators are eager to check the opportunities it may offer.

 

blockgeeks_com
Source: http://www.blockgeeks.com

New and disruptive business models, coming with reduced transaction costs and increased security are the promises.

A period of trial & error has begun. Concepts are developed, whitepapers written, pilots set up and tested … all that bringing progress, new ideas, corrections, contributing towards the next stage.

And as always, participating is the key to success. So the focus of this Website will be extended, covering blockchain concepts and project experiences.

Stay tuned.